Thursday, August 11, 2011

Actionable Trades: SPY, CF, GOOG, AAPL, OIH, HAL, CRM, DE, CAT

The wild ride continues in the markets, but the action today was a little easier to manage than the previous three days.  The Dow closed up over 400 points today, down more than 500 points yesterday, up over 400 points Tuesday and down more than 600 points Monday.  This is, in fact, the first time in history that the Dow had moves of 400+ points in four consecutive days.  Pockets of strength are starting to show, which is a positive sign for the markets. But that doesn't mean you should start chasing excitement. The same problems are still looming over us, and the VIX hardly pulled in, suggesting many people are still seeking downside protection.  On the positive side, the SPY held the lower pivot entry and extended above Tuesday's high today.
  


After a bullish crops report this morning, CF made new 52-week highs, a positive sign for the market.  CF is the leader in the agriculture sector and finished the day up over 10%.  This has already had a run into new highs, and considering it is coming from below $140, it would be better to see some high level consolidation or a pull-back to get involved.  It is best not to chase highs, especially in this environment.  




GOOG has now filled the gap on the downside from earnings and is currently trading above the 100-day moving average and the 50-day moving average.  It looks like GOOG could form a potential wedge pattern before making a new move.



AAPL continues to show relative strength to the market as it holds above key moving averages and began bouncing earlier in the week, giving clues to a bounce in the market.  AAPL held support of the 50-day moving average and only pulled 12% off of highs where as the SPY had a 20% pull-off of highs.   A new range is forming in AAPL and it could see an easy bounce up to $381-$383 before running into resistance.  AAPL is a good tell for the rest of the market.  




OIH has been hammered as the market was falling.  OIH had over a 20% move off of highs when it was at the lows from Tuesday.  There is a lower pivot forming in OIH that could provide an actionable trade soon.  Other stocks is in the sector are forming similar patterns, look to HAL, SLB, and OXY.



HAL is one of the leaders in the OIH's.  See how this lower pivot area resolves.



There was strength in the cloud computing sector today.  CRM cleared the lower pivot area to day with a clean break above the range.  Stocks like VMW (+4%), FFIV (+4%), and APKT (+10%) contributed to the group's strength.  CRM had room for a bounce to the $140 area.  Continue to take trades though.  



DE and CAT have similar chart patterns.  DE cleared the lower pivot area today and closed over +8%, where as CAT closed over +4% and has not cleared the lower pivot area.  Perhaps CAT can play catch up with DE.  DE has room up to $77-$80, if the market continues in its oversold bounce.



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