Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Actionable Trades: SPY, QQQ, AAPL, BIDU, GLD

SPY opened positive and stayed positive until the Fed announcement. It initially popped just before the announcement, and then fell sharply to break lows of the day. But this time around, dip buyers stepped in aggressively and the market staged a historic rally, with the SPY rallying 7 points in the last 80 minutes of trading.  SPY closed the day around +4.7%.  The bounce that traders were looking for finally happened.  There was a clean 80/20 reversal trade in SPY on heavy volume.  Seeing how the market bounces over the next several days will be important to judge the intermediate-term outlook.  This should lead to a Day 1 in a short-term rally, and it's very possible this was the bottom of this move. Use today's low of $110.27 as the reference point.    



Below is an hourly chart of the S&P with outlined Resistance Areas.  The Breakdown level is 1260-1250, which will be heavy resistance/"line in the sand."  



We saw a rally across the board in the last hour of trading.  There was early strenght in high beta tech leaders, which never broke below the lows of yesterday.  Below is a chart of the QQQ's, which put in a reversal bar on the daily chart today.  The QQQ's were 16% off the yearly highs at the lows of today.



AAPL was a stock that acted best when the market was getting hammered.  Although AAPL had a pull-off from highs, it held support of the 50-day moving average, whereas the S&P is trading far below key moving averages.  AAPL was 12% off the yearly highs at the lows of yesterday.  The stocks that acted best when the market was in correction, are the stocks to target for longs when the market rallies.



BIDU showed relative strength to the market today, closing over +10%. This is a stock to play if the market rally can continue.



GLD opened at new highs again this morning and was very extended on the longside.  As we saw a lot of reversal trades in stocks and indicies that were extended to the downside, there was also a calculated reversal trade on heavy volume in GLD through the 80/20 strategy, as GLD failed to hold new highs.  If this trade leads to more downside action, it could breed confidence to a bounce in the market.  STOPS in GLD 80/20 Trade: $173.15 (today's high.)    

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