Showing posts with label steve jobs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label steve jobs. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Actionable Trades: S&P, SPY, AAPL, BIDU, AMZN, GOOG


The market continues to perform well since IBD put it in a confirmed rally, holding all key levels. Buying dips has been working if you had the courage to trust this fickle market.  Since Thursday's gap down, the S&P has climbed from a low of 1135 to today's high of 1220.  That's an 85 point move!  The volume in this move has been very light, however, and most if it can likely be attributed to a short squeeze. Whether or not this is a short squeeze or a confirmed rally, what we need to know is that we are coming into overbought territory with the oscillator climbing into the 70s.  It is risky to chase longs after an extended 3-day move, yet shorting strength will be a tricky trade as we do not meet resistance until the 1250 level.  This is a spot to sell some longs if you bought last week, or you can begin anticipating shorts, although it would be prudent to wait for higher prices before trying feelers.  Let's take a look at a chart of the S&P...





The SPY are coming into overbought territory which means it is time to trim longs.  There is minor resistance at the $123.50 level which is where the sell off accelerated.  Today, we reached a high of $122.43, which means there is more room to run.  New support levels are forming as we hold a gap above the $119 level.  We can use $119.26 as a line in the sand if you are holding onto long positions.  If we can continue moving with this strength, I would be a seller of all long positions as we reach $125.00.  The SPY have been climbing higher on light volume the past few days.  Expect a slow paced market this week as trading generally quiets before Holiday weekends.






Below are 5 charts from the Tech sector that indicate downtrends being broken to the upside.  These show that there is strength among the 2011 market leaders, which is a very healthy sign for other stocks.  Traders should look for a follow through day in the near futures but expect a few days of sideways action before moving higher.  

For months, AAPL was weighed down by the uncertainty over Steve Jobs' health and futures with the company.  Since the announcement lifted that cloud of uncertainty, it has traded with relative strength and is setup to trade back to all-time highs, which are only $15 away.



BIDU put in a higher low after CCTV released its investigative report.  Now it is breaking above a downtrend which should lead to higher prices.  



AMZN has been a go-to for leading stocks during the first half of 2011.  Now it is breaking above a steep downtrend channel and is only $15 points off its all-time highs.




GOOG is not acting as well as the other big cap tech names because of the depth of its pullback in August.  However, this is a stock in one of the strongest sectors and the pattern should lead to higher prices.



Thursday, August 25, 2011

Actionable Trades: SPY, AAPL, BAC, AMZN, GLD, SLV,


All eyes are on the Jackson Hole Fed summit tomorrow.  Will Bernanke lay the groundwork for a QE3, or the FOMC just stay the course after the "failure" of QE2?  On a micro time frame, the SPY stalled at the macro downtrend line and gave a short term sell signal when it pushed through yesterday's high of $118.24, espcecially after a three day up-move.  On a macro time frame, the lower wedge is still intact but you don't want to see such a strong "distribution" day a few days into the new fledgling rally.  Traders should stay on their toes, and it's difficult to commit capital aggressively in either direction right now.          


Below is a short term view of the S&P.  So far the 1101 low has not been violated.  The S&P did hold the 1250-1255 area, which was important for bulls.  If we see a close below 1140-1145, this will be troublesome.




As traders, we know that it is best to 'sell the excitement' and 'buy the fear'.  Today we saw two perfect examples of that statement with BAC and AAPL.

AAPL continues to trade within the upper wedge on the daily chart.  This morning AAPL was gapped down about 2% (almost 7% at one point overnight) on the news that the company's visionary CEO, Steve Jobs, had resigned. However the stock took the news in stride.  AAPL did not close positive, but it was able to rally off lows to close the day down only 0.65%.  It would be constructive to see some sideways action before suggesting a new trade set-up.    



There had been relative strength in the financials this week, and when news that Warren Buffet was investing $5 billion into the company, it sent the banks soaring just before the open of trading today.  As traders, we don't buy the excitement, but rather sell into it. BAC was a perfect example of that.  It will be healthy to see BAC hold higher after this recent news to gain conviction on continued strength.  



AMZN had a strong reversal bar earlier this week as it started trading into the $175 support zone.  AMZN will need more time to set-up a better trade as there is no clear chart pattern for now.  AMZN is still holding above the 25% retracement level of the move from Tuesday.  To keep the upside momentum in place, it will be good to see AMZN stay above $187.




Gold was down this morning, but the weak stock market intraday sent investors back into Gold.  Yesterday SLV was the weakest of the precious metals, but today it was the strongest.    

GLD is a strong ETF, so after 3 days down into the 21-day moving average, it was prudent to cover shorts.  Some short-term active traders even bought this into support for a reversal trade.  GLD closed positive and on highs of the day.



Strong day for SLV, closing the day up 3.01%., but traders' focus should remain on GLD.